A new poll is giving Democrats hope that the 3rd Congressional District could still be competitive.
According to an internal poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the House Democrats’ campaign arm, Democratic challenger Dwayne Romero has a 1-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Hurd. The 3rd Congressional District has not voted for a Democrat since 2008.
Romero leads Hurd 47-46, with 8% undecided in the poll of 402 likely voters conducted on Oct. 20-21. The slim lead is within the 4.9% margin of error. It’s a slight improvement from a Romero campaign released poll from this summer where Hurd led by 1 point.
“Coloradans in this district are done watching their representative answer to lobbyists and party bosses instead of the people who actually elected him,” the Romero campaign said in a statement Friday. “These results show that the people of CD3 are ready for someone who will fight to lower costs, protect Social Security, and hold corrupt politicians accountable — not rubber-stamp Washington's chaos. I'm running because this district deserves a fighter who works for working Coloradans, not for special interests.”
Hurd's campaign expressed skepticism about the poll's findings in a press release on Friday.
“While the DCCC spends millions trying to nationalize races, Congressman Hurd remains focused on the people of Western and Southern Colorado. He’s delivered bipartisan results on water conservation, American energy, wildfire recovery, and critical infrastructure, while demonstrating that he’ll stand up to either party when it’s right for his district."
Polling is a snapshot in time and has been less reliable during the Trump years.
In some ways the race for the 3rd District, which encompasses the Western Slope and Southern Colorado, has been a sleeper race compared to the other Republican incumbents defending their seats in the state. But one key sign that Republicans may be worried is how much they’re spending in the race.
There's been more than $2.5 million in outside spending supporting Hurd, a Grand Junction lawyer running for his first reelection bid, and opposing Romero, a former Aspen City Council member and businessman. More than $1.8 million came from the Safety & Affordability PAC, a super PAC linked to Trump’s MAGA, Inc.
Across broadcast television and digital streaming, voters in Western and Southern Colorado have been peppered with ads calling Romero a liberal and accusing him of underhanded deals during his time on Aspen City Council.
Romero has had some support. The DCCC just ended a TV ad run with Romero and the DCCC chair Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Democrat from Washington, took a campaign swing through Carbondale this past weekend with Romero. It’s a sign they’re not giving up entirely on the race, even as the House Majority PAC, the House D super PAC recently cancelled its ad reservations in the race.
Hurd won the seat by 5 points in 2024 in a district Trump won by 10 points. The DCCC poll also found that Trump’s approval rating is 35%, with a 58% disapproval rate. That echoes recent polling that shows voters nationwide are souring on President Trump and the Republican Party’s ability to tackle issues that are top of mind, like the economy and health care. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found voters say they’re likely to send a Democrat to Congress over a Republican by a 10-point margin. And several recent polls find that Trump’s approval ratings are at an all-time low.
Another recent poll released by Democratic candidate Jessica Killin’s campaign this week also found Trump underwater in the 5th Congressional District, where 40% view him favorably and 56% view him unfavorably. Killin had a slight lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Crank in that poll, leading 46-42% in a two person race, within the margin of error.
The 5th Congressional District, centered around El Paso County, has never sent a Democrat to Congress.
One thing is clear, Republicans are on the defense in the state. Whether Trump becomes an anchor around these incumbents, however, remains to be seen.
Two non-partisan election handicappers — the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — moved Colorado U.S. House races in the direction towards Democrats this week. But none were Hurd’s district, which remains Likely Republican in both predictions.
Cook and Sabato moved Republican Rep. Gabe Evans’ 8th Congressional seat from toss-up to Lean D, while Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert’s race against Democrat Eileen Laubacher in the 4th Congressional District moved from Solid R to Lean R by both. The 4th Congressional District is mostly rural and covers the Eastern Plains, but the population centers are in Front Range counties.
Regardless of what polls and prognosticators find, one thing is clear: the Republican campaigns are pushing hard, as are their Democratic challengers, until Election Day.
EDITORS NOTE: This story has been updated to include candidate response to the poll.