Federal forecasters say there is above-average potential for significant wildfires all the way through the end of September across a vast swath of the Western U.S.
In the monthly season outlook, green means below average significant fire potential, white means average and red means above average. Starting in July, the northern half of the West is a sea of red. In August and September, all of Washington and Oregon, most of Idaho, Montana and Northern California and significant chunks of Nevada and Wyoming have above average potential. Wildfire smoke is associated with a host of health risks, including dementia and respiratory issues.
“The only thing that could really make this forecast of above-normal fire potential go wrong – which in that case, sometimes we’re actually happy to be wrong – would be an unusual northward and northwestward extension of the southwest monsoon,” said Basil Newmerzhycky, the lead meteorologist at the Great Basin Coordination Center in Salt Lake City.
He urged people to exercise extreme fire caution.
“The vast majority of our large fires, the ones that go tens of thousands of acres, are typically human started,” he said. “If we can eliminate that factor, we can eliminate 90% of our fires.”
Canada is already having a very heavy season, and its highest preparedness level. The 3.6 million acres that have burned there through the end of May are more than five times the size of Rhode Island and roughly three times the 10-year average for that period. Newmerzhycky said that even in the best of times, it can be a challenge to respond when just the U.S. is at its highest preparedness levels. Both countries use a 1-to-5 scale, with 5 meaning the season is very active, and resources are strained.
“Lots of times we get help from places like Canada,” he said. “But if they're at PL 5 also … that presents a unique set of challenges.”
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
