Two hurricane systems over the Pacific Ocean brought historic rains to western Colorado earlier this week, causing massive flooding in the southwest corner of the state.
Gov. Jared Polis estimated that the initial costs of the damage incurred by flooding are over $1 million. Much of that damage took place in La Plata and Archuleta counties, particularly in Pagosa Springs.
Videos posted to social media show hot springs resorts in the small town overwhelmed by water from the San Juan River, though the Denver Post reported there was no lasting damage.
It's not yet clear how much federal assistance will be available to these communities in the wake of the floods, due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Most FEMA workers are considered essential and have continued working throughout the shutdown, which has now lasted more than two weeks. But according to NPR, the agency's primary source of funding, the Disaster Relief Fund, is running dangerously low, and states, counties, and municipalities could see delays in reimbursement. FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program could also lapse without congressional action.
Gov. Polis has issued a verbal disaster declaration, freeing up additional state resources. The state has also extended tax deadlines for those impacted by the flooding. Officials at the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management say they're already working with FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the Small Business Administration on response, and may bring in more federal partners on damage assessments.
How does climate change impact these flooding events?
Some SNOTEL monitoring sites in the area recorded as much as six inches of rain in two days. The Upper San Juan SNOTEL site recorded its largest two-day precipitation measurement since 2005, and the Vallecito site recorded its largest two-day event on record. Analysis done by the Colorado State Climate Center shows that all of the other largest events at those sites took place in the winter. It's not uncommon for the San Juan Mountains to get lots of moisture from large snowstorms, but to get that much rain is rare, researchers say.
Colorado State Climatologist Russ Schumacher said historical records show other examples of moisture from hurricanes making its way to Colorado.
"Probably the most prominent example happened at a very similar time of year, October in 1911, and that was the biggest flood on record on the San Juan River and many of the other rivers in southwest Colorado," he said.
Schumacher said it's difficult to quantify at this point what the exact impact of human-caused climate change was on these particular floods in southwestern Colorado. There is research to indicate, however, that hurricane severity is linked to global warming.
"With warmer oceans, they tend to be a little bigger in size, and they tend to produce more rainfall," Schumacher said, adding that it will likely remain uncommon for a hurricane to take a path that leads it through the Mountain West. "It's reasonable to conclude that when that happens, those situations are probably gonna produce a little bit more rain as the planet continues to warm."
And Schumacher said that even if climate change caused only a little more rain to fall in southwestern Colorado than might have otherwise, it still would have an impact on flooding.
"Even a small increase in the rainfall can make that flooding considerably worse when it's already going to be a lot of rain to begin with," he said.
He said once the flooding damage has been addressed, there could be some positive outcomes, like reduced impacts from the ongoing drought.
"Maybe it'll help now for next summer because the soil moisture will be increased, some of the reservoirs have collected some of this water," he said.
Climate change drives both extreme droughts and extreme rains: both of which southwest Colorado has experienced this year. Schumacher said it's likely that these rain events brought the rainfall for the year up to average, or even above average, but that doesn't really tell the whole story of water in Colorado.
"Going from severe drought to a big flood is not really how you want to get your water," he said. "It's a lot easier for everyone to manage if it comes in a more steady stream of smaller events here and there, where you avoid the big drought, and you avoid the big flood."
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, around 14% of Colorado was in extreme drought on October 7. A week later, only 1.3% of the state is still in extreme drought.
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