Updated January 3, 2026 at 6:00 AM MST
There are a lot of different ways politics could go in 2026, from control of power in Washington to the agenda President Trump pursues.
No matter what happens, it will be consequential.
Let's take a look at some questions now that the new year is here:
1. Does the outlook on the economy change or remain the same?
Americans are sour on the economy, and Trump and the GOP are suffering because of it. In the December NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 63% of respondents said the country is headed in the wrong direction. Trump gets just a 38% approval rating overall and an even lower 36% for his handling of the economy.
A majority of people think the country is already in a recession, even though technically it isn't. They are pessimistic about what's ahead for this year, and prices are by far the top economic concern.
Democrats benefited at the ballot box in 2025 from those grim views, winning special congressional elections, the off-year gubernatorial elections and more. Winning off-year special elections is a good barometer of which party will do well in the following year's midterm elections, and the party in power has historically borne the brunt of the political punishment in tough times.
That's likely to happen again if views of the economy and the cost of living don't improve.
2. What does Trump try to do on affordability?
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve on economic success or failure. But in Trump's case, he's actively made things more expensive with his policies, particularly when it comes to the tariffs he's implemented.
Polling has shown that people are blaming him for that, too. Two-thirds in the latest NPR poll said tariffs were a concern as it related to their budgets, and there is a Supreme Court decision looming about their legality. A November Yahoo/YouGov poll found that people felt, by a 2-to-1 margin, Trump had done more to raise prices than lower them.
So is there something tangible he can do to address it or appear to address it? He has already pulled back some tariffs on agricultural goods in an attempt to ease prices and has promised a bailout for farmers. Will he try for a new tax credit or attempt to brow beat corporations into absorbing more of the costs? His efforts at selling his economy during an end-of-year address didn't crystallize any specific pushes he would be making.
The White House has tried to get the president out of Washington more to do events around "affordability," but even at those, the president has veered back to the issue that has animated his base and given fuel to his politics – immigration and the culture war.
It's something of a myth that presidents can persuade Americans to have a better view of the economy with their messaging. But they can certainly make things worse by not appearing to take economic concerns seriously or empathizing with voters' pain.
3. How much does Trump campaign for other Republicans?
Trump puts GOP candidates in a vise. He remains popular with the base, but he is toxic with independents. Despite maintaining solid approval ratings with Republicans, his overall job approval is at or near the lowest of his second term.
Independents and Latinos, two key crossover groups Trump did well with in 2024, have slid away from him, according to multiple polls and election results in 2025.
Trump's chief of staff, Susie Wiles, said she is going to get the president out on the campaign trail more than he might want this year. It will be notable to see where he goes and for whom.
Trump has a Midas touch in GOP primaries, but it's the opposite in general elections in competitive races.
There's a real question of just how much political capital Trump has left. He's turning 80 in June and is term-limited. He's on the brink of lame-duck status that could only be expedited with major losses, if they happen, in the November midterms. So will more Republicans, looking to a Trump-less horizon, start carving out their own paths?
4. Do we see more departures from Congress?
When members of Congress from the party in power decide not to run for reelection in big numbers, that can be indicative of a coming electoral wave.
And so far, a record number of House members and senators have announced they are not running for reelection — 56 out of 535, or more than 10%.
In the House alone, 44 incumbents are not seeking reelection — 25 Republicans and 19 Democrats.
5. Does Trump pursue any kind of legislative agenda?
Trump got a spending package through Congress in 2025 that he labeled the "One Big Beautiful Bill." But is that it? Will there be any other legislative accomplishments from this president?
That isn't clear, and working with lawmakers certainly hasn't been a priority. This president, with an acquiescent Republican-controlled Congress, has instead worked to centralize power in the White House. He's exercised that power through executive actions, publicly pressuring universities, law firms and the media, and pushing the limits of what's legal on both the domestic and international stages.
But, as past presidents have found, the road to a lasting legacy runs through the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue from the White House — in the U.S. Capitol.
6. What about what the president will try to do on his own?
Two areas in which Trump has acted without Congress — and will likely continue to — are foreign policy and immigration.
On Saturday, Trump said the U.S. had "captured" Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife following large scale airstrikes on the country.
It's still unclear if Trump sought congressional approval for the stunning operation, which he says was done "in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement." It follows a monthslong campaign of boat strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific.
In December, the House narrowly rejected a pair of resolutions which would have required Trump to get approval from Congress before any future attacks against Venezuela.
Then there's false starts on peace attempts in Ukraine and a tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East. Trump has eluded a lasting peace in either of these places – what steps might be taken to change that?
Domestically, does the Trump administration continue with its draconian immigration and deportation policies? The president's approval on immigration has slumped, though it's better than most other issues. Majorities have been saying in polls that the administration's approach to deportations is too harsh or doing too much.
7. Does Congress do anything on health care?
One of those less-grand, but-still-important legislative items is health care. Trump continues to promise health care that would be better than "Obamacare," but nothing has come to fruition in the decade Trump has been on the political scene.
The government shut down this past fall over those Affordable Care Act subsidies. The avenue back to reopening was through a compromise struck between moderate Democrats and Republican leaders to allow a vote on ACA subsidies.
But that bill and others did not pass. With people on the precipice of skyrocketing premiums, will Trump push for a fix, especially in an election year when costs are already the top issue for voters?
8. Does the government shut down again (and who gets the blame)?
If nothing passes on the subsidies, how far are Democrats willing to take it? Will they shut the government down again to try and force a compromise? Will voters blame them or Republicans? And how will Democratic base voters perceive their willingness to fight?
9. Will Democratic base voters rally around the party?
This is a key question for whether Democrats take back control of at least the House in this year's elections. Democratic voters in 2025 were unconvinced about the party's leadership.
Routinely, the Democratic Party and Democrats in Congress score lower with voters than Republicans, and that's because of Democrats. Democrats have been far less likely to say they approve of the job their party is doing than Republicans.
Despite that, Democrats did very well in elections in 2025, an indicator that Democratic voters' intense disapproval of the president and GOP may trump their lack of confidence in their own party.
10. How do Democratic candidates model their campaigns?
Will campaigns look more like the self-declared democratic socialist Mayor of New York Zohran Mamdani or Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger?
It really is a false choice, as none other than Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., told MSNBC after the 2025 elections that saw both Mamdani and Spanberger win.
"I don't think that our party needs to have one face," she said. "Our country does not have one face. It's about all of us as a team together, and we all understand the assignment. Our assignment everywhere is to send the strongest fighters for the working class wherever possible. In some places, like Virginia, for the gubernatorial seat, that's going to look like Abigail Spanberger. In New York City, unequivocally, it is Zohran Mamdani."
But expect Republicans to try to tie every Democrat to Mamdani, at the very least to fire up their base — though it's not clear how much that will work anymore, considering Trump's unexpectedly effusive praise of the then-incoming New York mayor at a joint Oval Office meeting.
11. Do any Cabinet members exit?
It's not unusual to see turnover in the White House and executive branch. In fact, a lack of it would be odd.
Consider that, in the four years of Trump's first term, he ran through four chiefs of staff and — whether acting or confirmed — four different defense secretaries and four secretaries of state.
Names that have reportedly been on the hot seat at various points in 2025 include Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (the administration refers to him as secretary of war), as well as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The president has, so far, stood by them, though.
12. How does the redistricting arms race shake out?
A huge key to control of Congress is going to be how mid-decade redistricting settles. Because of how districts are drawn, there are fewer and fewer competitive seats — even less so since 2018 when Republicans lost 40 seats with Trump in the White House.
The margin in the House is razor thin, so every seat is going to matter. Recognizing this, Trump took the extraordinary step of trying to get red states to carve out more GOP-leaning targets. He's had mixed success.
Republicans will likely tilt a few more seats in their direction, but it could have been worse for Democrats. And Democrats have had surprising success in countering GOP initiatives. That's particularly true of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who got his state's voters to temporarily nix a requirement that the state draw districts by independent commission. That will likely result in a handful of more Democratic seats.
It was a major victory for Newsom, someone who very much has his eyes on 2028.
13. How do candidates begin to position for 2028?
Believe it or not, 2026 will be the year that those 2028 presidential rumblings start.
Keep an eye on who starts making trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. There's a long list of names of Republicans who want to fill the void that will be left by Trump when he leaves, and an equally long — if not longer — line of Democrats who want to sell their post-Trump vision for America.
Remember this will be the first open presidential election in a dozen years and likely the first without a Trump, Biden, Clinton or Bush on the ballot in more than 30 years. And it was in October of 2006 when Barack Obama went on NBC's Meet the Press, changed his mind and opened the door to a run in 2008.
So who knows what will happen or who will emerge, but the jockeying has already begun.
Copyright 2026 NPR
