So you think that beer you brewed in your kitchen is ready for prime time, and you're thinking, "Maybe I should take the plunge and set up a little craft brewery."
You're not the only one with dreams infused with hops and malting barley. During the past couple of years, new breweries were being launched at the rate of three a day in the U.S.
New District Brewing is one of them. It just popped up in a cinder-block building in an Arlington, Va., light-industrial park.
On this particular evening, co-founder Mike Katrivanos is behind the sleek tasting room bar, where eight NDB originals are on tap. He makes sure all his patrons know that he's a "local" — his grandmother lived just a couple of blocks from here.
Local is a big deal in craft brewing.
"Folks, when they come to a brewery, they want to meet the brewers," Katrivanos says. "And they want to connect with what they're drinking."
Another big thing is, of course, flavor.
Regulars Don Ripper and his friend Chana Morrow, who show up about once a week, are here for a tasting this evening.
"Really good balance," Ripper says as he sips a golden IPA called Folded Note.
Morrow has a darker brew, called Origins Unknown. "Nutty, malty," she says, as she savors.
A desire for beers that have more taste is, not surprisingly, a big part of what's driving the demand for craft beer. Just ask New District regular James Miervaldis — he says he loves the variety here and "how they experiment."
Does he ever drink Bud or Miller? "Oh, God no — never, never, never."
So, fueled by the unquenchable thirst of its customers for the next great flavor note, the craft beer industry has exploded like a poorly fermented bottle of home brew. Now 1 in every 8 beers sold in the U.S. is craft beer, and more than 20 percent of the money consumers spend on beer goes to independent and small brewers.
Flying Dog Brewery in Frederick, Md., was founded in the 1990s. But CEO Jim Caruso says there's been an even bigger boom since 2008, with a growth rate that's pushed the number of craft breweries to more than 4,000. Meanwhile, Caruso says, beer titans like Budweiser, Miller and Coors have seen sales trend down.
So the giant brewers have taken action. Anheuser-Busch has bought up a number of craft breweries, including Seattle's Elysian Brewing and Chicago's Goose Island, and Constellation Brands just paid $1 billion for Ballast Point, a San Diego craft brewer.
These developments, Caruso says, are persuading some people to start brewing because it's the next "get rich quick" scheme. And that's led to some newcomers "putting out some bad beer," he says.
He worries that if consumers get a few bottles of beer that's not good, they may get turned off the industry. "It may be months or years before they come back and try it again," he says.
But say you're confident in your brewing skills: Is there still time for you to get into the business?
Probably, says Bart Watson, an economist for the Brewers Association. New brewery openings outnumber closings nearly 10 to 1, Watson says. And the industry, which adds around $55 billion a year to the U.S. economy, now helps support 424,000 jobs.
But some parts of the country have become pretty crowded — perhaps overcrowded — with new breweries, Watson says. San Diego County, Calif., has more than 110 breweries, and Portland, Ore., has 60, just in the city proper. "Those places are really pushing the limit," he says.
The craft beer movement largely started in the West, Watson notes, and is now moving eastward. That's partly because state regulation of alcohol was strongest in the East after Prohibition and has been loosened more slowly. So, Watson says, in the East and the Southeast, there's lots more room for craft beer to grow.
And Watson offers another statistic that should ease concerns about a brewery bubble forming: There are about 8,000 wineries in the United States, and, he says, "Americans drink a lot more beer than they drink wine." So, he says, as long as many of them are small, and locally focused — "like a local restaurant" — he thinks there are plenty of opportunities and market niches where small brewers can thrive.
So go ahead, start your own brewery. Just expect to come up with an initial investment of around $500,000, and don't expect to get rich, says New District's Katrivanos. He is hanging on to his engineering job at the Pentagon until his brewery can pay him a salary. "If you're getting into brewing specifically to make money, I'd advise against it," he says. If that's your goal, he says, "You should go start a tech company."
KELLY MCEVERS, HOST:
So you figured out how to brew your own beer, and you start asking some your friends, what if we started our own craft brewery? This scenario is apparently pretty popular. New breweries are opening at the rate of three per day in the U.S. NPR's John Ydstie wonders if we could soon be at peak brew.
JOHN YDSTIE, BYLINE: We'll get to whether it's time for you to start a brewery in a minute, but first let's check in with someone who's just done it.
MIKE KATRIVANOS: Hi, my name is Mike Katrivanos. I'm the founder of New District Brewing Company here in Arlington, Va. We're locals, and we're very blessed to have about eight beers on tap tonight.
YDSTIE: Local is a big deal in craft brewing, and locals like Don Ripper and his friend Chana Morrow show up often at New District.
DON RIPPER: We come pretty much every week. We live over the hill. We just walk up here.
YDSTIE: What are you drinking tonight?
RIPPER: I'm having a Folded Note because I'm a IPA kind of person, and this is a really good balance. It's not too hoppy but very delicious.
YDSTIE: And what are you drinking?
CHANA MORROW: I'm drinking one of their experimental brews. I'm actually getting some nutty, malty, so it's not on the hoppy side, which I know is the trendy thing.
YDSTIE: Driving the demand for craft beer is a desire for beers that have more taste. Just ask New District regular James Miervaldis.
JAMES MIERVALDIS: Honestly, I love how they experiment. It's always a great experience when I come here.
YDSTIE: Do you ever drink Bud or Miller?
MIERVALDIS: Oh, God, no.
MIERVALDIS: Never, never, never.
YDSTIE: Mike Katrivanos says that intensity is also apparent in the commitment the craft beer crowd has to local production that supports their local community.
KATRIVANOS: Folks, when they come to a brewery, they want to meet the brewers, and they want to connect with what they're drinking.
YDSTIE: As a result, the craft beer industry has exploded like a poorly fermented bottle of homebrew. Now 1 in every 8 beers sold in the United States is craft beer, and more than 20 percent of the dollars spent on beer goes to independent and small brewers.
Jim Caruso is the CEO of Flying Dog Brewery in Frederick, Md., part of an early wave of craft breweries founded in the 1990s. But Caruso says there's been an even bigger boom since 2008 with a growth rate that's pushed the number of craft breweries to more than 4,000.
JIM CARUSO: Ten to 15 percent a year for the last seven or eight years, probably a greater growth rate than any consumer product while your domestic lagers - they're just different from craft beer - Budweiser, Miller and Coors - have been trending down.
YDSTIE: The giant brewers have taken notice. Anheuser-Busch just bought up a number of craft breweries, including Seattle's Elysian and Chicago's Goose Island. And Constellation Brands just paid $1 billion for Ballast Point, a San Diego craft brewer. Jim Caruso says these developments are convincing some people to start brewing because it's the next get-rich-quick scheme.
CARUSO: So you have some people getting into the industry because they have the financial resources to do so, and they're putting out some bad beer - not just beer that we don't care for, but it has some defects in it.
The downside to that is that consumers get a few bottles of beer that is not good and then they get turned off to the industry. It may be months or years before they come back and try it again.
YDSTIE: But let's get back to whether there's still time for you to get into the business, or does all this tremendous growth mean craft brewing has reached a saturation point and become a bubble? Bart Watson, who's an economist for the Brewers Association, says there's no evidence of a bubble - quite the opposite. He says new brewery openings outnumber closings nearly 10 to 1. But Watson says some markets have become pretty saturated.
BART WATSON: You know, San Diego County has more than 110 breweries. Portland, Ore., has 60 breweries in the city proper, where certainly the market is much more competitive than in other parts of the country. So you know, those places are really pushing the limits.
YDSTIE: Watson says the craft beer movement largely started in the West and is now moving eastward. That's partly because state regulation of alcohol was strongest in the East after Prohibition and has been loosened more slowly there. So Watson says in the East and the Southeast especially, there's lots of room for craft beer to grow.
WATSON: You know, one statistic I always like to point out is that there's about 8,000 wineries in the country now, and Americans drink a lot more beer than we drink wine. So as long as many of them are small and locally-focused, operating like a local restaurant or bar, I think there's plenty of opportunities for market niches where small birds can still thrive.
YDSTIE: But expect to come up with an initial investment of around half a million dollars for your brewery, and, says New District's Mike Katrivanos, don't expect to get rich.
KATRIVANOS: If you're getting into brewing specifically to make money, I would advise against it. You should go start a tech company.
YDSTIE: John Ydstie, NPR News, Washington. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.